Companies could back up to 1.9 million tonnes of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) by 2030, almost six times 2024 levels, a study published on 14 October 2026 found.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA), Airbus and Accenture released the study in Brussels. It puts potential corporate demand at between 1.0 million and 1.9 million tonnes, up from an estimated 323,000 tonnes in 2024. Companies do not take delivery of the fuel itself. They buy environmental attribute certificates, which represent emissions cuts from SAF used somewhere in the aviation system. They then count those cuts against their indirect, or “scope 3”, emissions from business travel and air freight.
The study matters because of price. SAF costs two to three times as much as conventional jet fuel. Global output is expected to reach only 2.4 million tonnes in 2026, or 0.8 percent of all jet fuel used. At the top of the study’s range, corporate buyers would support a volume equal to almost 80 percent of this year’s entire world production. “Airlines cannot shoulder the cost of scaling it up alone,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice-President for Sustainability and Chief Economist.
Government mandates are also driving demand. European Union rules require SAF to make up 6 percent of aviation fuel at EU airports by 2030. Britain’s mandate rises to 10 percent by 2030, which was expected to require about 1.2 million tonnes of the fuel that year. The study’s upper estimate for voluntary corporate demand would exceed that figure.
Most companies are holding back for now. Jesko Neuenburg, who leads aviation and travel sustainability at Accenture, said only about 15 percent of companies surveyed currently buy certificates. He said most are waiting for prices to fall, carbon accounting rules to settle and buying to get simpler. Certificates generally cost between US$150 and US$500 for each tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent avoided, while companies say they would pay closer to US$300. Airlines sell about 53 percent of the certificates companies buy.
The study sets out three conditions for wider corporate buying:
- clear and consistent accounting rules, so companies know their purchases will count;
- tracking systems that work together and prevent the same reduction being claimed twice;
- simpler purchasing, with clearer prices, smaller minimum volumes and shorter contracts.
These conditions depend on a “book-and-claim” system, which lets a company claim the emissions benefit wherever the fuel is actually delivered and burned.
Julien Manhes, Airbus’s Vice-President for SAF and carbon dioxide removal development, said clearer accounting would turn corporate interest into firm commitments. He said that would give fuel producers the near-term demand they need to raise output and cut costs.
Owens Thomsen said corporate buying alone would not deliver the volumes aviation needs. She said government support, effective incentives and a large expansion of production capacity remain essential.
